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    It’s Time to Short the Front End
    Fed credibility is really being challenged by the market. I know lots of people say the Fed has already lost credibility, etc. But I never really believed that because the Fed has only every tried to explicitly control the front end of the curve. This is the first time in a long while that the […]
    Some thoughts on policy at the lower bound
    First, a bit of market commentary. Equities are making new highs as I suggested was likely in my last note. We’ll see if it holds, but historical instances suggest reasons for optimism. I think a 5% run-up through year end is fairly likely. I’ve noted b...
    2H Outlook: Here comes the squeeze
    Obviously, the British referendum is dominating the headlines.  I don’t really have much to add to the narrative.  What I want to do today is discuss the broader backdrop, which I expect is likely to play out eventually regardless of the referendum outcome, since direct economic linkages to non-EU areas suggest a limited role for […]